Another week of college football is in the books, and the new, penultimate BCS standings of the regular season have been released. The news: wonderful for Stanford. The Cardinal sits at No. 4; that slot ensures that Stanford will receive a guaranteed bid to a BCS bowl game. (See provision six under “Automatic Qualification.”)
Of course, this positioning has to hold, and there is still one weekend of football left to be played. However, we can state with complete confidence that it is virtually impossible for Stanford to be leapt in the BCS rankings next weekend.
The Cardinal expanded its lead over No. 5 Wisconsin this weekend, going from a .0075 margin to a .0228 difference. That’s wide enough to be considered “comfortable.” Additionally, Stanford’s computer average ranking was fourth; Wisconsin’s was seventh and No. 6 Ohio State’s was ninth. With all three schools having completed their regular seasons, there is no reason for there to be much movement in any direction. Although, theoretically, anything can happen—all of the voters in the Coaches’ and Harris Polls can imbibe various cocktails of narcotics before casting their ballots, or something like that—it is almost accepted fact that Stanford will maintain its No. 4 ranking in next week’s final BCS rankings.
It boils down to this: Stanford will be playing in one of the five BCS bowls. But which one? If you want the short version: start packing for either Glendale (Fiesta Bowl) or Miami (Orange Bowl), because those are the most likely options. Here are the scenarios:
1. Oregon beats Oregon State; Auburn beats South Carolina; and Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
2. Oregon beats Oregon State; Auburn beats South Carolina; and West Virginia wins the Big East
3. Oregon beats Oregon State; South Carolina beats Auburn; and West Virginia, Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
4. Oregon State beats Oregon; Auburn beats South Carolina; and Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
5. Oregon State beats Oregon; Auburn beats South Carolina; and West Virginia wins the Big East
6. Oregon State beats Oregon; South Carolina beats Auburn; and West Virginia, Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
Let’s examine the options under each of the six:
1. Oregon beats Oregon State; Auburn beats South Carolina; and Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
Possible Bowl Games: Fiesta, Orange, Sugar
Likely Bowl Game: Orange
If Oregon and Auburn both win, that locks in the title game and, by extension, the Rose Bowl, as TCU would be automatically selected for the open spot usually reserved for the Pac-10 team. This takes two bowls off the table. However, there is a little known provision that could get Stanford into the Rose Bowl. Jon Wilner explains:
Now, there is a little-known rule buried deep within the BCS manual that gives the conference commissioners the authority to overrule any bowl selection based on what’s essentially a “good of the game” clause.
I’m not sure the honchos have ever gone down that path and seriously doubt they would this year to get Stanford into the Rose and send TCU to another BCS game.
As he says: not much of a possibility. It makes sense on two levels—Pac-10 tradition and Stanford’s large southern California alumni base—but it would be such a drastic and unprecedented move that it appears quite unlikely. The potential use of the “good of the game” clause comes into play in scenarios one, two, four and five, but this is the lone time we’re going to mention it.
So: Rose Bowl and the title game are out. That leaves the Fiesta, Orange and Sugar Bowls. The order of selection for the bowls this year is: Sugar, Orange then Fiesta.
The Sugar Bowl is the traditional landing spot of the SEC champion, but since Auburn would be playing in the title game, it would likely fill the spot with another team from the conference. That would be either Arkansas or LSU. Since the Sugar Bowl would have lost its host, it can make that replacement before the “draft” of the at-large teams, meaning that it would still have first choice of who it would take. The logical choice of the remaining squads would be Ohio State, which has one of the largest national fan bases and has shown it can travel, in droves, anywhere. So, though it remains an option, the Sugar Bowl does not seem particularly likely.
That leaves the Fiesta and Orange Bowl. At this point, we can explain why the Big East champion matters. The Big East is, simply, an awful conference, but it has an automatic BCS berth. That said, it isn’t tied to a specific game, so for all intents and purposes, the Big East champion is treated like an at-large team and enters the “draft.” There are three teams competing for the Big East championship: Connecticut, West Virginia and Pittsburgh. Connecticut controls its destiny: a win at South Florida next weekend, and it wins the conference and secures its BCS bid. If Connecticut loses and West Virginia beats Rutgers, the Mountaineers win the conference. And if both Connecticut and West Virginia fall, but Pittsburgh wins at Cincinnati, the Panthers win the conference. (If all three lose, Connecticut gets the bid.)
If Connecticut or Pittsburgh wins the Big East, it will likely be the last team selected and thus head to the Fiesta Bowl. The Panthers would be 7-5, and the Orange Bowl has been saddled with uninspiring matchups in the past few years. Connecticut would be 8-4 and almost equally unappealing—plus, it has a fan base that has yet to show it can travel. Under this scenario, we’re projecting that the Orange Bowl would favor one-loss Stanford over these two teams.
2. Oregon beats Oregon State; Auburn beats South Carolina; and West Virginia wins the Big East
Possible Bowl Games: Fiesta, Orange, Sugar
Likely Bowl Game: Fiesta
This scenario is largely the same as the previous one, and what was said about the title game and Rose and Sugar Bowls still holds. The difference comes in the Fiesta and Orange Bowl selections. If West Virginia wins the Big East, it would be an attractive pick for the Orange Bowl. The Mountaineers would be 9-3 and possibly a top 20 team. They have a large, traveling fan base that is mainly situated on the East Coast. The combination of those factors could lead the Miami-based Orange Bowl to choose West Virginia over Stanford, sending the Cardinal to the Fiesta Bowl.
3. Oregon beats Oregon State; South Carolina beats Auburn; and West Virginia, Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
Possible Bowl Games: Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose
Likely Bowl Game: Rose
This is rather simple: if Auburn loses to South Carolina next week, it would fall out of the title game, with TCU taking its spot. If that’s the case, there would be an open space in the Rose Bowl that would almost certainly go to the Cardinal, giving the BCS its best match up of any of the five games: Stanford-Wisconsin.
4. Oregon State beats Oregon; Auburn beats South Carolina; and Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
Possible Bowl Games: Fiesta, Orange, Sugar
Likely Bowl Game: Orange
Oregon and TCU would swap places in the Rose Bowl and the title game (Oregon and Stanford would share the Pac-10 crown, but Oregon would get automatic bid based on head-to-head win), but Stanford’s situation would be the same as in scenario one.
5. Oregon State beats Oregon; Auburn beats South Carolina; and West Virginia wins the Big East
Possible Bowl Games: Fiesta, Orange, Sugar
Likely Bowl Game: Fiesta
Oregon and TCU would swap places in the Rose Bowl and the title game (Oregon and Stanford would share the Pac-10 crown, but Oregon would get automatic bid based on head-to-head win), but Stanford’s situation would be the same as in scenario two.
6. Oregon State beats Oregon; South Carolina beats Auburn; and West Virginia, Connecticut OR Pittsburgh wins the Big East
Possible Bowl Games: Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose, BCS title game
Likely Bowl Game: ?
Bedlam. If the unthinkable happens and both Oregon and Auburn lose next weekend, everything goes up in the air, and anyone saying that they know, right now, how it would sort out is lying. Stanford would still be in a BCS bowl, that is about as certain as any of the other scenarios. The Cardinal could wind up in any of the four named bowls and there’s even the slim chance they could be playing for a national title. But trying to predict which one is a fool’s errand.